Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Oil Price Increase & Return of Secular Bear Market

1 year & 1 month after i wrote about the rebound in oil prices back in July last year, this is what the price of oil is now:

 Price of oil has increased around 21%.

Doom of Sillypore's Hybrid Regime

"It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30."
-Chevron CEO David O'Reilly in July 2005

8 years have passed since 2005. The speed at which natural resources are depleted is astonishing. With military junta Myanmar opening up & its populace aspiring to a standard of living like the west & Sillypore, the appetite for resources is simply mind boggling if we consider China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia etc etc.

"Is high oil prices that make unconventional oil worth producing in the first place."
-Richard Heinberg

With much of Sillypore peasants now already suffering under depressed wages, further increases in prices of food, transportation etc in the years ahead is virtually guaranteed to see the hybrid regime voted out.

Sillyporeans will see their home prices collapse when elderly sinkies in particular sell their homes to buy food. Currently the 3 local banks are already downgraded to negative from stable by ratings agency Moodys.

Sillypore Entering Recession
Straits Times Index (STI) has dived down from its May top. Back in 2008 it was reported that Sillypore was the first Asian country in recession in the financial crisis.

Since the bull move recovery in 2009 in this secular bear market, the bull is 4 years old. It is considered old. When Obama was reelected president late last year, i already anticipate the 'winter season'. However the old bull still make a tiring climb.

America's S&P 500 Index is at a top right now. It will dive down like Sillypore's stock market index. According to Wikipedia, the stock market index S&P 500 (likewise for STI) is considered a leading indicator.

Similarities Between STI & S&P 500
Let's take a longer view & look at the weekly charts. STI has already dive.

Bull is out of breath for S&P 500.

I don't own Nike stock. The bull for NKE is out of breath at US$66.

Other Oil related blogposts:
Low Returns from Unconventional Oil = High Prices

Desperate Oil Drilling by USA via Hydraulic Fracking

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