Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Since the housing bubble burst in the US in late 2007, the stock market(S&P500 Index) has still not recover yet. Likewise for S'pore's Straits Times Index.
We are now 5 years in this 'so-called recovery'. 5 years is considered long in stock market cycle as a recession is due. As such it is very dangerous to buy Index funds at this late stage. The so-called recovery from dot-com bubble burst in early 2003 lasted less than 5 years.
I don't believe in buy & hold approach for index funds. If someone bought during the height of the dot com bubble in 2000 & hold until now he/she is still at a loss. There's a damn long 12 years. Same applies to buying at height of housing bubble-still losses after 5 years.
With dwindling resources like cheap oil, there will be 'severe oil shocks' in the future considering China & India's voracious appetites. Add in frontier markets like Mynamar, Cambodia & it is even worse. Coupled with aging populations in the developed western countries, Japan & sillypore, the elderly ain't gonna spend & consume. Hence is long term sideways/bear market.
Notice that the internet (1996) has made the market more volatile. Same goes with jobs & businesses. It is now a turbulent world.